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Wimbledon 2009 – The Final 16 – Gentlemen

28 Jun 2009 by Hiland in Wimbledon 2009

Rafa withdrew. Juan Martin came out soft. Davydenko is gone. Fernando Gonzalez was outlasted. Blake never showed. Robredo succumbed. Marat Safin went down in the first round.

robin-soderling-action-during-wimbledon-2009Israel’s unseeded Dudi Sela is still playing. Ivo Karlovioc had too much for Jo-Willy. Soderling is for real. Tommy Haas came through. Lleyton Hewiit put a continent on his shoulders and is carrying it forward. Stanislaus Wawrinka came back against young Jesses Levine. Unseeded Juian Carlos Ferrero is in the final 16.

Even if they say they don’t, Andy Roddick (6), Gilles Simon (9), Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray have one eye on that Swiss gentleman, the winner of 14 Grand Slam championships.

This just may be the greatest Wimbledon ever. Everywhere you look, the unexpected is happening. And, there is just enough superstar charisma left to keep it very interesting.

Of the final 16 gentlemen combatants, there is a 23 seed (Stepanek), a 20 seed (Berdych), a 19 seed (Wawrinka), a 29 seed (Andreev), a 24 seed (Haas), a 22 seed (Karlovic) and 3 unseeded (Hewiitt, Sela, Ferrero), players left. 9 never-should- have lost to that guy winners!

Purists might say, the draw was poorly seeded. Experts shake their head, looking for answers that are not there on paper. Wimbledon is not about those past performances. What you did in Paris or Melbourne does not matter. At the All England Club, all that matters is how you perform on grass for two weeks. Your next return matters. Your next serve matters. The next slip on the grass, the next bad bounce, the next missed volley can make or break your year. It is that time of this tournament.

Week two begins now. Sunday at Wimbledon will be one of the great days of tennis. The hot players will be in form. Luck of the draw is gone. This is money time.

This is the way we see the gentlemen’s draw unfolding.

Hewitt – Stepanek - Hewitt has momentum and is splaying with purpose. A former Wimbledon Champ, this 29-year old still has some bounce in his game. 31-year old Radek Stepanek knocked off Ferrer in five but it had to take a toll. We like Hewitt convincingly.

Berdych – Roddick – Roddick sounds confident and it is not all about his serve anymore. Berdych was impressive against Davydenko winning in three decisive sets. Roddick in a close one, but don’t bet the milk money.

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Murray – Wawrinka – Wawrinka had trouble with Levine. He has not seen anything like Murray will throw at him. For Queen and Country. Bet the farm on Murray.

Ferrero – Simon – A surprising five set win over Gonzalez gives Ferrero all the credibility he needs. Simon is yet to be tested. This one is a toss up but the upset could happen. No bet.

Andreev – Haas – Andreev must have dreamt this draw, but he struggled with Seppi. Haas is playing with confidence and we like his girlfriend… a lot! Like to see more of her. Haas in five.

Sela – Djokovic – How did this happen? Talk about David and Goliath. Not going to happen this time around, sling shot or not. Novak has not lost a set. Djokovic is the play of the day. Softest match out there.

Verdasco – Karlovic – Karlovic played with confidence against an outmanned Tsonga. The blazing serve was working. Fernando better be home sleeping and not playing footsy with Ana. We like Verdasco, but this is a tough one. No play.

Soderling – Federer – Soderling is no fluke and has a score to settle. Federer dropped surprising set to Kohlschreiber before finishing at 6-1. Impossible to bet against the man. Federer wins.

Well, write them down. Let us know how you see it. As crazy as this draw is, when you break it down, Federer has the toughest roads to the finals. Roddick and Hewitt should meet. Murray walks to semis. Djokovic in semis unless he beats himself… again! Tomorrow has it all. How will we watch all that tennis?

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Nadal Rocks Draw – Withdraws!

22 Jun 2009 by Hiland in Wimbledon 2009

rafael_nadalThe flamboyant defending champion and tournament top seed has rocked the tennis world once again. This time it is with his absence. The world’s number one has withdrawn from the grandfather and most prestigious of all the Grand Slams. Rafael Nadal announced his withdrawal after the original draw had been formed and sent tournament organizers into a tailspin. Critics score Nadal’s late decision as unfortunately typical. The Spaniard might have been better served by announcing his withdrawal earlier in the week, but that is not Rafa’s style.

There are many players who benefit from Nadal’s departure. Remarkably, the second seed, 14-time Grand Slam Champion and five-time Wimbledon Champion, Roger Federer has the most difficult path to the semi-finals.

In the greatest player of all-time’s quarter are heavyweights Fernando Verdasco (7), Ivo Karlovic (22), Jo-Wilfreid Tsonga (9), Robin Soderling (13) and Feliciano Lopez (21). If form holds, Round Four will be a rematch of the French Open finals pitting Soderling against the five-time winner. In the quarters, Verdasco should be looming, but Tsonga does not go away quietly. Tennis experts are shaking their collective heads and wondering how it could be any more difficult for the focused Federer to claim his 15th title.

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Meanwhile, Scotsman Andy Murray, winner of the Queen’s and now top seed in the top half of the draw, has a comparative cakewalk to the quarters. His chief combatants will be Stanislaus Wawrinka (19), aging Marat Safin (14), Fernando Gonzalez (10), Victor Hanescu (31) and 8 seed Gilles Simon, who is not at the top of his game. If form holds, Murray’s fourth round would pit the testy Scot against Wawrinka. The Scotsman would meet the Frenchman, Simon, in the quarters. For Murray the path is clear to the semis.

The fourth seed is Serb Novak Djokovic, who escaped a quarterfinal matchup against Juan Martin del Porto when Nadal withdrew. Djokovic’s quarter has Mardy Fish (28), Tommy Robredo (15), Rainer Schuettler (18), Marin Cilic (11), Tommy Haas (24) and the struggling James Blake (17) who was moved to fill del Porto’s slot. What a mess!

If form holds, Djokovic will meet the tough Robredo in the fourth round and Cilic in the quarters. Djokovic is unaccustomed to such a relaxed draw and this may be just the spark the moody Serb needs to make a big move.

Juan Martin del Porto (5) slides into Nadal’s place. He is far and away the biggest beneficiary of Nadal’s damaged knees. In his quarter are Radek Stepanek (23), David Ferrer (16), Nikolay Davydenko (12), Tomas Berdych (20) and probable quarterfinal matchup Andy Roddick (6).

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Like del Porto, Roddick must be licking his chops. Roddick is two-time runner-up at Wimbledon and is enjoying a fine year. It has been a long time since the American has been positioned so well at a Grand Slam.

The Ladies Singles’ Draw

dinara-safinaWimbledon will be Dinara Safina’s most difficult Grand Slam Draw of the year. The number one seed will be challenged to get through the quarters where her decisive Roland Garros conquerer, Svetlana Kuznetsnova (5), will be waiting. The top of the draw looks to provide some other hefty challenges for the nervous Safina, who has a more difficult path than Svetlana to the probable quarterfinal pairing. Fiava Pennetta (15), Amelie Mauresmo (17) and Caroline Wozniacki (9) stand in the way of the French rematch.

Third seeded Venus Williams looks to have the most favorable quarter. The five-time winner at Wimbledon has not needed a lot of help in the past. She is an expert grass-court player. With her sister in the lower half of the draw, the possibility of a Williams-Williams final matchup looks very possible. However, there are stumbling blocks aplenty for both sisters. The main competition in Venus’s quarter will come from the well-conditioned Samantha Stosur (18), Ana Ivanovic (13), Agnes Radwanska (11) and French disappointment Jelena Jankovic (6). Stosur is in top form and poses a stern test for the three seed. Jankovic looks to have a clear path but seems to stumble in Grand Slam tournaments.

Number two seed, Serena Williams is chomping at the bit to regain her former number one ranking. The tough American is well suited for the Wimbledon grass and plays her best when the pressure is highest.

The younger Williams should have smooth sailing to the quarters. A likely fourth round pairing with Patty Schnyder (21) should not present much of a test. However, the quarter possibilities are intriguing. 24th seed and fast returning to form Maria Sharapova (24) is a strong candidate along with hard-hitting Victoria Azarenka (8), and Nadia Petrova (10). There are four potential champions in this quarter.

Elena Dementieva whose sub-par performance in Paris has raised previously unasked questions about her fitness and heart will need to play better to knock off Dominika Cibulkova in the fourth round. Elena will probably face the always-ready Vera Zvonareva (7) or Marion Bartoli (12) in the quarters.

Our longest shot of the Wimbledon event is American 17 year old Melanie Oudin who arrived in the main draw via three qualifying wins. A month ago, the pretty Georgian was finishing her junior year in high school. Oudin plays 29th seed Sybille Bammer in the first round. Oudin could well surprise but will certainly be game.

Two surprising draws are bound to provide great play, loads of emotion and more than the usual number of upsets.

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Wimbledon 2009 – The Seeds and The Odds

19 Jun 2009 by Hiland in Wimbledon 2009

Gentlemen’s Singles

1. Rafael Nadal – 7/2

rafael_nadal4

Will he or won’t he? That is the question. The 7/2 odds were posted before the Spaniard lost an exhibition match to Lleyton Hewitt on Thursday. Rafa’s knees have kept tournament organizers on edge and the defending champion is reserving his final decision until the last minute. Despite his number one seed and his glorious 2008 win over Federer in the greatest Wimbledon Final ever played, grass is not Nadal’s surface of choice. The bookmakers have taken that into account and marked him the third choice. It is not easy to overlook his 44-5 2009 won-lost record or career 379-82 record or more than $25 million in earnings.

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One way or another Rafa will have an impact on the draw and the seeding. Rafa still seems wounded after falling to Soderling on his favorite surface at Roland Garros.

2. Roger Federer – 11/10

roger-federer

A 15th Grand Slam would unquestionably qualify the Swiss wonder-man as the greatest player of all time. Winning at Wimbledon, where he has already won 5 championships, would add special meaning to the record 15th title.

The bookmakers have installed Roger as a prohibitive favorite and who can argue with a man that has played in 22 consecutive Grand Slam semi-finals. Roger Federer knows how to win. He is a champion’s champion and his 650 – 155 career won-lost record tells the story.

3. Andy Murray – 5/2

andy-murray

Fresh off his dominating Queen’s Championship, Andy Murray has sets the presses abuzz. The talented Scot became the first Brit in 71 years to win the Wimbledon prelim, but his Grand Slam record is spotty.

With two quarterfinals and a Runner-up to his credit, Murray has been unable to register a signature win. While the talent is there, many lingering questions about his ability to play on the center stage still remain. His 2008 quarterfinal appearance at Wimbledon was his best showing on the home court. Perhaps this year he will live up to expectations.

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4. Novak Djokovic – 10/1

novak-djokovic

Unlike Murray, the big Serb has won a Grand Slam, the 2008 Australian Open, and was a semifinalist here last year. Somehow, his big game disappears against the two biggest names. Grass is not Djokovic’s favorite surface but he has the game for it.

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After being eliminated in the quarters at Melbourne and in the 3rd round at Roland Garros, the bookmakers are pulling back a bit. Djokovic will be awaiting word on Nadal’s decision.

5. Juan Martin del Porto – 25/1

juan-martin-del-porto

He reached the semis in Paris but still must be disappointed with his season. One of the tour’s most popular players, del Porto needs to be a little less popular and a bit more focused. With one of the biggest games on the circuit, the lanky Argentine must make a Grand Slam move.

Del Porto is fast becoming the player other players want to see in a big match. His 31-9 record has moved him up the ladder but he remains a fifth seed in a search of a big upset.

6. Andy Roddick – 25/1

andy-roddick

Roddick has performed beyond expectations. A semi-finalist at Melbourne and a fourth round surprise on the red clay in Paris, the two-time Wimbledon Runner-up has the game for the grass.

Roddick’s new conditioning and more disciplined approach make the sixth seed a dangerous opponent. Roddick’s ability to hold serve puts pressure on opponents. At 25/1 the American is a decent longshot.

7. Fernando Verdasco – 25/1

fernando-verdasco

Verdasco was a disappointment in Paris. Since his semi-final match against Nadal in Melbourne, the Spaniard has moved quickly up in the rankings. Verdasco reached the 4th round here last year and is in much better form this time around.

Verdasco should make the quarters and if he plays with his new intensity, he has the game to pull an upset. He simply needs to believe it.

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8. Gilles Simon – 125/1 –

gilles-simon

After another quiet performance in Paris, Simon can only be regarded as a weak 8 seed. The tiring Frenchman is only 21-18 this season and is moving down in the rankings.

Simon has only reached the quarters in one Grand Slam in his career and grass has never been his strength. The 8 seed lost in the third round last year and he will be tested before that this time.

9. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – 16/1

jo-wilfried-tsonga

With Tsonga, it is all about expectations. An imposing force, his fourth round performance in Paris was lackluster. Best described as a moody player, Tsonga needs to come out, grab the momentum and run with it. In his only Wimbledon, he reached the fourth round, but the bookmakers must see something we do not. Look for an early upset.

10. Fernando Gonzalez – 66/1

fernando-gonzalez

Fernando does not beat himself. A passionate, experienced competitor, Gonzalez plays to the crowd. He goes after the umpire, the linespeople and anyone else who will listen. With a 4th round showing in Melbourne and a semi at Paris, Gonzalez will not be an easy out. With a 22-6 record this year, Gonzalez has steadily moved ahead. Look for at least a quarterfinal appearance.

11. Robin Soderling – 33/1

robin-soderling

Soderling still has his Roland Garros glow. Wherever that showing came from, it made an impression. Soderling has jumped up in the rankings and caught the eyes of the bookmakers. He has the serve and the forehand to pull more surprises. Now that he has tasted success, he may be hard to stop.

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